Archive for the ‘Advanced Discussion’ category

For This Afternoon:


The weak storms that have been firing in our region were initiated off some boundary that has been moving NE over us.  This boundary is now beginning to intersect the lake breeze boundary at the northern end of both, and is initiating some more potent storms there.  As these two boundaries continue to intersect down the line, I expect additional storms to fire soon along these boundaries, then move to the ENE.  With CAPE at around 4000, expect these storms to explode rapidly, but without much in the way of supporting shear, I do not expect them to become supercellular, but rather line out after a relatively short amount of time.  Primary threats from these storms will be damaging winds and hail, with only a very slight possibility for some weak tornadoes.


Snow possible late tonight


Snow possible late tonight into the pre-dawn hours.

A surface warm front is to our south and we’ll have near freezing, maybe sub-freezing temperatures at the surface with east winds off the lake and if the NAM forecast soundings are to be believed a sub-freezing atmosphere conducive to snow development. With as much as 2″ possible to fall, some of that could actually stick long enough to see it in the morning.